The 2016 Presidential election comes down to six swing states and whomever wins those will be our next President. With the debate coming up soon, there is a lot on the line.
Hillary Clinton had a strong 11 point lead over Donald Trump in the polls just a few weeks ago but after a couple small blunders like calling Trump’s supporters a “basket of deplorables” and then mysteriously fainting and stumbling at the 9/11 memorial she has found her lead down to 4 – 5% depending on which poll you view.
Can a debate affect the winner?
Let’s review what happened 8 years ago (2008) before and after the televised presidential debate –
Barack Obama had a very strong 8% lead over John McCain. At this debate, McCain pulled a rabbit out the hat by the name of “Joe the Plumber” and it appeared like the tides may turn to favor McCain but the bounce in actual votes was minimal. McCain shrunk Obama’s lead down to 5% but it was very short lived and Obama quickly rebounded and blew out McCain during the election.
We attribute this to the fact that Obama’s lead was too large going into this debate for McCain to really be able to do anything.
Now let’s review what happened 4 years ago (2012) between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
Obama had a very poor performance in the debate and went from having an 8% lead over Romney to losing by 4% after the debate.
Obama had such a poor debate because he appeared smug and disinterested during the debate. He barely addressed any issues and his ego was evident. The American public didn’t like that and took notice. The tides turned to Romney.
Who Will Win the 2016 Election?
Now that we’ve reviewed past elections lets get back to this year’s election.
In order for Donald Trump to win, he will have to win the swing states.
Ohio: currently Trump is +2% (18 electoral college votes)
Florida: currently Trump is +1% (29 electoral college votes)
North Carolina: currently Trump is +1% (15 electoral college votes)
Virginia: currently Clinton is +5% (13 electoral college votes)
Michigan: currently Clinton is +5% (16 electoral college votes)
Pennsylvania: currently Clinton is +6% (20 electoral college votes)
One month ago, Donald Trump was losing in every one of these six swing states so the momentum is in Trump’s favor.
The winner of the 2016 election is the candidate who wins the swing states so the upcoming debates are more important than ever!